Democrats in Congress never will say so publicly. They know, though, they have little or no hope of taking back control of the House of Representatives until 2022 at the earliest.
That is because gerrymandering in states like Texas and Georgia and North Carolina has concentrated the many Democratic voters in those places into just a few congressional districts, leaving all the rest safe for the GOP.
It is the same thing Democrats did in California before the advent of the Citizens Redistricting Commission which drew today’s lines and led to a slew of highly competitive races last year, with more to come in 2016.
This reality has heavy implications for the U.S. Senate candidacy of Kamala Harris, attorney general and a former San Francisco district attorney.
The less chance that veteran Democratic members of Congress believe their party has to regain control of the House, the lower they rate their own chances for ever becoming powerful committee chairs effective at pushing their agendas.
As long as their party is doomed to minority status, they can do little more than try to fend off Republican proposals they see as outrageous.
Like many in hopeless situations, they begin to look elsewhere. This is one reason former Democratic committee chairs from California — like Henry Waxman and George Miller — retired from Congress. It is a large, unstated reason for the departure of the latest announced retiree, Lois Capps of Santa Barbara.
As they cast about for ways to be effective, Democrats had nowhere to go except retirement through the first several years of the current GOP domination in the House. But then Democratic U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer announced she will retire after next year. Chances for Democrats to take over the Senate are much stronger than in the House, because no party manipulation of district lines is involved there.
More Contenders to Come?
That is why, as some prospective Democratic rivals of Ms. Harris’s Senate candidacy began to drop out – Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom, former San Francisco mayor, and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa – members of Congress kept seriously examining the Senate race. Yesterday U.S. Rep. Loretta Sanchez announced her candidacy, and House members Xavier Becerra of East Los Angeles and Adam Schiff of Burbank may sign up.
Each would bring unique strengths to a race with Ms. Harris, who has two declared opponents, Republican Assemblyman Rocky Chavez of Oceanside and Tom Del Beccaro, a former state GOP party chairman.
Ms. Sanchez is an 18-year House veteran who upset longtime Republican incumbent Robert (B-1 Bob) Dornan in 1996.
All are liberals and would bring a Southern California presence to a statewide Democratic scene long dominated by Bay Area politicians like Ms. Boxer, U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein, Newsom, Gov. Brown and state party Chairman John Burton.
If Ms. Sanchez can arouse resentment in Southern California of that northern domination, she could be a formidable candidate against Ms. Harris, a protégé of former San Francisco Mayor Willie Brown.
Ms. Sanchez brings a Latino element into the race, the same factor that drove Mr. Villaraigosa’s brief flirtation with a run. She has not had brushes with scandal, unlike Mr. Villaraigosa and Mr. Newsom, both with histories of womanizing.
For sure, Democrats have depended on Latinos for their dominance of California politics. But they never have propelled a Hispanic into a top-of-the-ticket slot like governor or the Senate. That could change.
Ms. Sanchez runs one risk Ms. Harris does not have: She does not have to give up her office to run, while Ms. Sanchez does.
The new Democratic reality of long-term minority status in the House changes equations a bit. They are frustrated at their inability to regain power anytime soon, which greatly reduces the risks of making a run.
Mr. Elias may be contacted at tdelias@aol.com. His book, “The Burzynski Breakthrough, The Most Promising Cancer Treatment and the Government’s Campaign to Squelch It,” is now available in a soft cover fourth edition. For more Elias columns, visit www.californiafocus.net
