• The social fabric of Iraq has been torn apart.

• There is not ‘one’ civil war, nor ‘one’ insurgency, but several civil wars and insurgencies between different communities and organizations; there is also a range of actors seeking to undermine, overthrow or take control of the Iraqi government.

• Iraqi nationalisms exist, but one distinct ‘Iraqi’ nationalism does not. Iraq has fractured into regions dominated by sectarian, ethnic or tribal political groupings that have gained further strength from their control of informal local economies.

• Al-Qaeda has a very real presence in Iraq that has spread to the major cities of the center and north of the country, including Baghdad, Kirkuk and Mosul.

Although Al-Qaeda’s position is challenged by local actors, it is a mistake to exaggerate the ability of tribal groups and other insurgents to stop the momentum building behind its operations in Iraq.

Regional powers have a greater capacity than either the U.S. or the U.K. to influence events in Iraq.

This arises from a historical legacy of social interaction and religious association that exists, irrespective of modern international state boundaries.

• The Iraqi government is not able to exert authority evenly or effectively over the country. Across huge swathes of territory, it is largely irrelevant in terms of ordering social, economic, and political life. At best, it is merely one of several ‘state-like actors’ that now exist in Iraq.

• Security in Iraq cannot be ‘normalized’ in a matter of months but instead should be considered within a timeframe of many years. If the Multinational Force is withdrawn, Iraq’s nascent security services would not be able to cope with the current levels of insecurity.

It’s not only telling that the Iraqis are still unable to guarantee their own security after all this time, but that the situation isn’t remotely under control. Despite past headlines triumphantly proclaiming Iraqi Prime Minister Al-Maliki’s opposition to timetables, reports that have been marginalized by mainstream news sources indicate that the Iraqi parliament voted, in a nonbinding resolution, for an end to the American presence in Iraq. (http://www.globalpolicy.org/security/issues/iraq/withdraw/2007/0509iraqilawmakers.htm.) As the report suggests, however, a sudden withdrawal can be disastrous. However much the U.S. shouldn’t have gone into Iraq in the first place, the lack of an exit strategy is having horrific and tragic consequences.

Going Nowhere

There’s no end in sight, no solution, no peace. The White House, the House and the Senate all flop around like fish on land. While polls show that the majority of the American public is quite fed up with the direction the country is headed in and how the Iraq war is playing out (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/huff-wires/20070520/pessimistic-us), it baffles the mind that there’s no momentum to really change anything. There’s only debate, more debate, still more debate, and even that is debatable considering it’s the same talking points flung about, only at a louder volume.

If that’s not depressing enough, how about opium-producing Afghanistan? Or Israel-Palestine, where the on-going lack of resolution is being worsened by Palestinian in-fighting? How about Iran, which recently showed itself further along the uranium enrichment path than anticipated? With carrier groups in the Gulf rattling sabers and the Bush Administration (not to forget the European Union, frankly) still not learning anything about diplomacy, it’s tempting to go along with the so far dead-on Scott Ritter on foreseeing military action against Iran sometime soon.

I know, I know, I’m just ranting here. My apologies; I’d love nothing more than to take each of these things and offer a more in-depth analysis. The thing is, I’m just not feeling it this week. Maybe it’s just news overload (it happens often), but all this bloodshed both real and potential is getting to me these days.

Politicians aren’t helping. Except for Dennis Kucinich and Mike Gravel on the Democrats’ side and the likes of Ron Paul (who was unfairly savaged by Rudy Giuliani for expressing a perfectly sane viewpoint) on the Republican side, the political spectrum seems to consist of Republican fearmongering and war cheerleading and spineless Democratic equivocating. In other words, politics as usual.

They say those who don’t learn from history are doomed to repeat it. Is that why whenever I brush up on my history everything seems so familiar?