IPCC Mitigation Report

As the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change releases another report confirming the scientific consensus that human activity is causing an increase in global temperatures, we are confronted with an ever-pressing need to act. A few key points from the report’s summary:

“Global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have grown since pre-industrial times, with an increase of 70 percent between 1970 and 2004… Since pre-industrial times, increasing emissions of GHGs due to human activities have led to a marked increase in atmospheric GHG concentrations”

“A range of policies, including those on climate change, energy security and sustainable development, have been effective in reducing GHG emissions in different sectors and many countries. The scale of such measures, however, has not yet been large enough to counteract the global growth in emissions.”

“With current climate change mitigation policies and related sustainable development practices, global GHG emissions will continue to grow over the next few decades.”

“There is substantial economic potential for the mitigation of global GHG emissions over the coming decades that could offset the projected growth of global emissions or reduce emissions below current levels.”

One of the interesting aspects of the report is its analysis of costs associated with mitigating greenhouse gases – stabilizing or reducing gas concentrations: “In 2030 macro-economic costs for multi-gas mitigation…are estimated at between a 3 percent decrease of global GDP and a small increase.”

Sacrifice Now, Reap Rewards Later

I understand that there is some argument as to actual effects of climate change mitigation on the global economy. But, given the billions of dollars of damage that uncontrolled climate change can have, particularly in impoverished areas, we’re at the crossroads where what we do now can have a truly positive effect. Three percent of the GDP – another figure is that mitigation could possibly decrease GDP growth by 0.12 percent – hardly seems catastrophic.

Perhaps, in the face of skepticism that treats global warming like a vast left-wing conspiracy to accomplish who-knows-what – a paranoia reminiscent of Sept. 11 conspiracy theorists – we have the basis for discussing global warming in more than doom-and-gloom terms.

If we think of human accomplishment, there have always been those – typically on the fringe – who take a demeaning view. The pyramids, for example, are marvels of human ingenuity. Yet some insisted aliens built them – because, you know, humans are just too dumb to figure it out. In a similar vein, although businesses focusing solely on profit at the expense of the environment deserve scathing criticism, we should also encourage in them that spark of human ingenuity that will develop or refine amazing new technologies. Solar panels, electric cars, power-generating windmills – we’re already getting a glimpse of what is possible. And I’m convinced that these new technologies can invigorate rather than slow down our economy.

As the latest report from the IPCC reveals, there is actually a great amount of thought and discussion going on both within the scientific community and between policymakers around the world. But all this reveals more than just the economic feasibility of reducing greenhouse gases, however much it may require a sacrifice on our part now; it represents an opportunity to renew that can-do attitude that built the pyramids, that saw the development of computers and other wonderful inventions, and got us to the moon.

To read more about the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and read key reports, visit their website at www.ipcc.ch.