Ask any of my government students, and they will tell you that the party of the President almost always loses seats in Congress during midterm elections.
American voters like divided government with one party controlling the Presidency and the other controlling the Congress as a forced form of separated powers and a check on extremist government.
This phenomenon has taken place in every election since since 1942 with only one exception (2002, just one year after Sept. 11). On average, the President's party loses 28 seats in the House and four seats in the Senate.
Considering President Obama's controversial agenda, his sagging poll numbers, the current hyperpartisanism and the tough economy, this year's election results should be phenomenal for Republicans and devastating for Democrats. But they won't be.
Check the Climate
Pundits are saying that Republicans will certainly take control of the House and maybe even the Senate, only two years after the Democrats accomplished the nearly unimaginable 60 vote filibuster-proof super-majority. But they won't.
You see, the other thing that I teach my students is each election has a unique context, an individual character. We must all look at the current political climate to better determine exactly where Washington will be come December. This election is far different from the normal midterm election because of Republican extremism and lingering memories of the Bush administration. For those two reasons, Democrats will not lose nearly as many seats in Congress as are being currently predicted.
Democrats have won the last two election cycles primarily by finding candidates who best match each state. In Virginia, Democrats tapped Jim Webb, a former Republican and Reagan administration official with a military background. In Montana, they found Jon Tester, a rancher with a moderate political ideology. Both beat incumbent senators with long political histories because they matched the political ideology of the electorate in that state.
This year Republicans are moving in the opposite direction, nominating candidates with extreme political philosophies, even in moderate or liberal states. In Alaska, Sen. Lisa Murkowski had a 30-point lead over her Democratic challenger. With the help of the Tea Party Express and Sarah Palin, Joe Miller, an attorney who advocates doing away with Social Security and unemployment benefits, won the primary. Murkowski has now pledged to run as a write-in candidate, giving Democrats a possible pickup in what should have been an easy Republican win.
Delaware is another wonderful example. Mike Castle, the moderate Republican Congressman, was a strong favorite to win Joe Biden's old seat. He was such a heavy favorite that the best Democratic candidate, Beau Biden (the Vice President's son), passed on running against him. However, Delaware Republicans chose to bypass Castle and instead nominate far-right perennial candidate Christine O'Donnell to run in this Democratic state. This was supposed to be a sure thing Republican pickup. Now it is a 25- point Democratic stronghold. Extremism does not sell. Republicans are shooting themselves in the foot.
Dems Not Likely to be Budged
What's more, while Obama's poll numbers are down, mirroring those for Democrats nationwide, Republicans are hardly doing better. Often they poll even worse than Democrats, as is the case in last week's Gallup Poll. The public is not happy with the seeming inaction of the Democratic-controlled Congress in fixing the economy. However, they also remember that in eight years the Bush administration brought this country two wars and two rounds of tax cuts with no conceivable way of paying for them.
They remember that four years of Republican control of both houses of Congress brought them the second great depression due to an unrestricted Wall Street and the Katrina disaster due to an unqualified bureaucracy. They may not be thrilled with Obama and the Democrats. But compared to their predecessors, there is no comparison.
When America wakes up Wednesday, Nov. 3, Democrats will still control at least one, likely both, houses of Congress.
There will still be more Democrats registered to vote in this country, and Democrats will continue to work to improve the lives of all who live here. Republicans will have another chance to take control in 2012.
But if they want to be taken seriously, they need to heed the lessons of electoral history and begin addressing in a meaningful way the issues that we care about.
Mr. Silbiger, a member of the School Board, may be contacted at ksilbiger@juno.com
