Maybe Dana Rohrabacher, the Republican congressman from Orange County best known for his surfing photo-ops, has wiped out once too often. Or maybe his ultra-safe political turf keeps him from seeing the reality that stares his party in the face when it comes to the issue of immigration.
Whatever the reason, Rohrabacher demanded early in the House of Representatives’ discussion of immigration changes that his fellow Republican, Speaker John Boehner, poll the GOP’s 234 congress members before he allows a House vote on any immigration bill.
That would follow the so-called Hastert Rule – named after former Republican Speaker Dennis Hastert. It holds no bill of any kind should get a vote without the backing of a majority of the majority party.
Doing this likely would mean no immigration bill containing any kind of pathway to citizenship for unauthorized immigrants will pass so long as Republicans hold a House majority.
Boehner quickly succumbed to the pressure. “I don’t see any way of bringing an immigration bill to the floor that doesn’t have majority support of Republicans,” he told reporters.
This Is Suicide
Call this a presidential election suicide pact. Doing it might mean no Republican will be elected President for quite a while. That is the contention of Republican Sen. Lindsay Graham of South Carolina, one of four Republicans in the so-called Gang of Eight who crafted most of the immigration bill passed by the Senate a few days ago.
“If we don’t get (immigration reform) in a reasonable, practical way, it doesn’t matter who you run in 2016,” Graham said. “We’re in a demographic death spiral as a party. The only way we can get back in good graces with the Hispanic community is to pass comprehensive immigration reform.”
How can that be correct when Republicans easily hung onto their House majority last year, even as President Obama handily was reelected? Mainly, it is because gerrymandered districts in states where Republicans control legislatures guarantee huge GOP edges in their congressional delegations. That gives the GOP clout in the House far exceeding its share of popular votes cast for Congress.
In a Different Universe
Rohrabacher is effectively sealed off from the sort of pressures Graham cites because his coastal district is so heavily Republican.
That left him free to launch a gnarly wave toward Boehner, who was about to stage his first-ever meeting with the all-Democratic Congressional Hispanic Caucus. For conservatives like Rohrabacher, it’s almost treasonous to let the Democrats’ 201 House votes count for anything. The only immigration bills that stand a chance of passing the House without Democratic support would do things like making felons of anyone in this country without proper documents.
Rohrabacher told a conservative radio host that Boehner would face a party revolt if he allows a vote on any bill like the Senate one. “I would consider it a betrayal of the Republican members of the House and a betrayal of Republicans throughout the country,” Rohrabacher said. “If Boehner moves forward…he should be removed as speaker.”
That sentiment flies in the face of national polls, unanimous in finding a large majority of Americans favors a path to citizenship for the undocumented, especially if it is as arduous a path as the Senate bill would make it: Heavy fines, waiting periods of about 13 years for many, thorough background checks and more.
With Boehner caving to the pressure from Rohrabacher and other ultra-conservatives, Graham’s prediction of GOP disaster may come to pass. One survey by the Latino Decisions polling firm, for example, found that as many as 40 percent of Hispanic voters would be willing to give GOP presidential candidates a new look – but only if the party takes a leadership role on immigration changes.
Latinos, the fastest growing ethnic voter bloc in America, still vote in numbers far below their percentage of the population. As more register and vote, they will gain even greater importance than they had last year, when President Obama’s 77-23 percent majority among them was instrumental in his reelection.
The bottom line for Republican purists is simple: If they insist on treating all the undocumented as criminals or something similar, they likely will doom their party to at least one more presidential wipeout.
If they surprise and prove willing to compromise, it could be Democrats who fall off the wave.
Mr. Elias may be contacted at tdelias@aol.com. His book, “The Burzynski Breakthrough: The Most Promising Cancer Treatment and the Government’s Campaign to Squelch It,” is now available in a soft cover fourth edition. For more Elias columns, visit www.californiafocus.net
