It’s like a Hollywood script.
Just when you think you’ve got the bad guys on the run, along comes another baddie. Only this one’s got attitude.
It’s kind of like saving Tokyo from Godzilla only to find that the planet is being invaded by flesh- consuming aliens on the South Beach low-carb diet.
After pulling the economy back from the brink during the worst recession in 70 years, we’re facing a potential global pandemic.
In a disturbing new projection, health officials say up to 40 percent of Americans could get swine flu this year and next. Several hundred thousand could die without a successful vaccine campaign and other measures.
A Spot of Good News
These estimates by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) are roughly twice the number of those who catch flu in a normal season.
Swine flu already has hit the United States harder than any other nation, but it has struck something of a glancing blow that's more surprising than devastating. To date, the virus has caused about 10,000 hospitalizations, killed nearly 600 Americans and sickened more than 1 million.
These figures are comparable to a seasonal flu. But unlike other viruses, the swine flu seems to have developed the weird ability to keep spreading throughout the summer.
Most health officials believe the H1N1 virus is just getting started.
With schools in full session, health officials say flu cases are poised to explode this fall. Health experts see schools like giant Petri dishes where the virus can freely breed and multiply.
Although the first H1N1 vaccines are due to be released next week, U.S. health officials at the CDC are still not sure whether it will be effective in halting the spread of the virus.
Estimates on the potential impact of H1N1 are based on the 1957 flu outbreak that killed nearly 70,000 in the United States but was not as severe as the infamous Spanish flu pandemic of 1918-19 that killed millions worldwide. The number of deaths and illnesses from this flu virus, however, could drop if the pandemic peters out or if efforts to slow its spread are successful.
In 1957, the U.S. population was around 170 million. Today, prior to the pending census, the U.S. population has reached nearly 310 million. Approximately 85 percent of Americans live in cities. The domestic and international mobility of Americans is at an all-time high. This means more of us are coming into potential contact with strains of the virus than ever before.
A Colder Look at Fatalities’ Impact
Because so many more Americans are expected to catch the new flu, the CDC is calculating that the number of deaths over the next two years could range from 90,000 to several hundred thousand.
The impact to an economy already reeling from repeated body-blows could be devastating.
During a typical flu season, U.S. businesses suffer losses between $10 to $20 billion. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce says the economic effect of the swine flu could be two to three times higher.
This figure does not account for costs associated with possible school closings. A recent report from the Brookings Institute found that school dismissals could cost upwards of $47 billion.
While shutting schools is only seen as a preventative remedy of last resort, the number of school dismissals since the fall term began a month ago is on a record pace. According to figures released Monday by the U.S. Dept. of Education, there had been at least 187 school closures across the country affecting at least 79,678 students.
These closures happened even before the virus has reached its stride. If this virus is as serious as projected, there could be a 20-fold increase in dismissals.
Keeping kids home from school likely will require an equal number of parents to stay away from work to care for their ailing children. This, in turn, will increase the exposure of adults, leading to an additional multiplier for the virus.
Mushroom Effect
Complicating these figures is the fact many of these parents may be healthcare workers. This would thin the ranks of the frontline against the spread of the virus, leaving even more Americans vulnerable.
The Brookings report estimated that up to 12 percent of the U.S. workforce could be forced into absence by school closings. When this is added to the number of workers who may be out for up to a week or more because they have actually contracted the illness, the cost to U.S. businesses, already hobbled by the recession, could be sky high.
Other than repeated handwashing and avoiding crowded places, health officials are urging those Americans most at-risk to get inoculated with the new H1N1 vaccination.
Though people with underlying health conditions are considered more susceptible to the virus, young and healthy teenagers and adults under 50 years old also have become seriously ill. Some died. Consequently, the CDC is recommending that in addition to healthcare workers, children under 19 years old and adults over 55, especially those with chronic illnesses like asthma and pulmonary disease, get vaccinated.
While health and fiscal toll of the swine flu may not approach past pandemics, it comes at a time of great economic stress when many businesses are struggling to stay afloat.
Even if you’re deathly scared of needles and a skeptic of modern medicine, take the shot. It not just smart thing to do. It may be your patriotic duty.
John Cohn is a senior partner in the Globe West Financial Group, based in West Los Angeles. He may be contacted at www.globewestfinancial.com
