For a state long a symbol of youth, there’s been a lot of age among California’s preeminent politicians of the last decade. That began to change in 2012, and the shift accelerated this summer. Many of the old guard chose not to brave the top two primary system that threatened to expose them to serious intra-party challenges.
Changes in the state’s congressional delegation two years ago saw departures of the long-serving likes of Pete Stark (East Bay area), David Dreier (San Dimas), Jerry Lewis (Redlands), Elton Gallegly (Simi Valley), Mary Bono Mack (Palm Springs), George Radanovich (Merced), all retiring or getting turned out.
Going, Going
The trend continues. Congressional kingpins like Howard (Buck) McKeon (Santa Clarita), Henry Waxman (West Los Angeles) and George Miller (East Bay area) are retiring. All are or have been chairmen of major House committees. This is as bi-partisan as a trend can be, affecting Republicans and Democrats almost equally.
It will grow in coming years. A quick look at the ages of those who represent the coastal districts from San Francisco to Santa Barbara makes it clear. These usually solid Democratic districts stretch hundreds of miles south from the San Francisco turf of former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, 74, who bristles at questions about her age. There are Jackie Speier, 64, of San Mateo, Anna Eshoo, 71, of Palo Alto, Zoe Lofgren, 66, whose district reaches from San Jose to Gilroy, Mike Honda, 72, facing a serious challenge in his San Jose district, Sam Farr, 72, of Monterey County, and Lois Capps, 76, of Santa Barbara County.
All are capable. But any could draw a major challenge at any time, as Mr. Stark did two years ago when the 40-year congressional veteran from Alameda County, 82, was surprisingly beaten by an intra-party challenge from 31-year-old Eric Swalwell, a Dublin city councilman. Mr. Swalwell beat Mr. Stark in their all-Democrat 2012 runoff by a thin 52-48 percent margin. So Mr. Stark, like many of his former colleagues, likely would be in Congress but for the top two system. This permitted the Republican minority in his district – displeased by his long liberal record – to vote against him. No GOP candidate would stand a chance in that district.
Chances are seats in most districts seeing change will not switch parties. They will get younger representatives who figure to start as back-benchers, years from any hope of chairing a big-time committee.
Senior Means Pretty Old
Change is in the wind in statewide offices, where Gov. Brown will likely be reelected one last time this year, with the Democratic logjam behind him at last beginning to break up after that. Former San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom, for one, wanted to be governor four years ago, but Mr. Brown’s strength forced him to settle for lieutenant governor. No one will hand him the top job. Expect people like Atty. Gen. Kamala Harris, Controller John Chiang, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and possibly his successor, Mayor Garcetti, to consider 2018 runs for the state’s top job.
Should either of California’s aging of U.S. senators, Dianne Feinstein and Barbara Boxer, step down – a possibility if Democrats lose their Senate majority this fall and both lose the committee chairmanships they love – any of the current gubernatorial prospects and some folks now in Congress might seek that job.
It’s tough to predict who might emerge among Republicans because they don’t hold any statewide offices. They are not favored to win any this fall, either. A respectable autumn run by businessman Neel Kashkari, Mr. Brown’s fall opponent, could propel him into prominence.
One sure thing: Change is coming, along with the end of near monopoly on high office.
Mr. Elias may be contacted at tdelias@aol.com. His book, “The Burzynski Breakthrough: The Most Promising Cancer Treatment and the Government’s Campaign to Squelch It,” is now available in a soft cover fourth edition. For more Elias columns, visit www.californiafocus.net
