If you haven’t already made your dinner reservations, you’re probably too late.
You can tell her that in the spirit of being thrifty in a down economy, you thought it would be a cozy idea to dine in. If you can’t cook, fake it by picking up good take-out.
Just remember to remove it from the plastic containers and, for God’s sake, don’t leave the dirty dishes.
[img]354|left|||no_popup[/img]Valentine’s Day may be for lovers. But this year, all the traditional romance-related retailers like jewelers, chocolatiers, florists and even the love-standard, Victoria’s Secret, are reporting slower sales.
None of this has come as any surprise to the folks that track consumer confidence. Confidence among U.S. consumers fell in February as job losses and declining prices for stocks and homes undermined Americans’ view of their financial well-being.
The Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment fell to 56.2 from 61.2 in January. The drop is the first in three months and puts the index near a 28-year-low reached in November.
The $789 billion stimulus plan emerging from Congress and heading for the President’s desk may jolt the U.S. economy in successive waves: relief to cash-strapped consumers, businesses and states, then a job-creating lift from spending on roads, utilities and public transit.
Most economists believe that the package will take time to have an impact, and unemployment is likely to keep rising for months. Even in the most optimistic projections, the economic slide will not be halted until late in the third quarter with growth returning toward the end of the year.
Today marks the beginning of “Fashion Week” in New York, when top designers can be seen wheeling racks of clothes to the tents at Bryant Park, just blocks from their studios in the Garment District. Many designers fear that their new fall lines will be discounted before the season even begins. Over the holidays major retailers often slashed prices without telling designers.
Although much of what we wear is sewn overseas, pricing in the U.S. apparel industry is key indicator of economic mental health. Along with consumer electronics, clothing purchases are closely tracked to measure changes in discretionary spending habits.
With the spigot on billions of federal dollars about to released, economists say the first evidence that the plan is working should be visible in consumer spending and retail sales, which they expect will stop declining around mid-year. The next sign may come in business investment, as companies grow more confident about a pick-up in sales. Unfortunately, the final signal of success would be a turnaround in a labor market that has lost 3.6 million jobs since the recession started in December 2007.
[img]355|left|||no_popup[/img]So far, the market response to the President’s stimulus package and the measures announced this week by Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner to rescue the banking system has been tepid. For his part, Geithner is being handicapped by a dearth of experts critical to implement his plan.
By any estimation, Geithner’s plan is complex with hundreds, if not thousands of variables and unknowns. Geithner’s strategy of forging a partnership with private investors to buy toxic assets would benefit from aides steeped in law and finance to thresh out the competing interests in the plan. Geithner is being hobbled because the administration has been delaying the submission of additional departmental nominees to avoid Senate confirmation battles until after the stimulus package passed.
On a final note; just in case you don’t have a calendar, today is Friday the 13th. It’s one of three that will appear on the calendar in 2009. As if things weren’t already tough enough!
I’m not superstitious. But with the way things are going, I don’t plan to walk under any ladders – and if I see any black cats, I’ll quickly cross the street.
John Cohn is a senior partner in the Globe West Financial Group based in West Los Angeles. He may be contacted at www.globewestfinancial.com.
