[Editor’s Note: An interview with Mark Lundberg, Chairman of the GOP in Sioux City, Iowa.]
EOH: In the past, candidates have come under fire for not spending time in Iowa. Is that still a valid criticism?
ML: I would say that is accurate. The cycle has been different than in 1976, and we have had little participation from the main candidates. Part of it is related to the major debates. The candidates are putting a lot more emphasis on the debates, and that takes away from efforts here in the state. Regarding Gov. Romney, four years ago he spent a great deal of time in our state. This time he has kind of backed off. Doesn’t have as good a ground game as he had four years ago.
EOH: Do you think Mitt Romney has a sense that he has it locked up and doesn’t need Iowa?
ML: I would say the Romney campaign will probably do well not spending time or resources such as in the past, partly because of what happened four years ago, partly because of his performance in the debates. If you look back, Sen. McCain did not have a lot of effort in Iowa four years ago. And he ended up the nominee. The Iowa Caucus next Tuesday is different than a primary in that you get more advocates and conservative flavor on the Republican side, like the Democrats have a more liberal flavor in their caucusing.
EOH: Could you explain the difference between a caucus and a primary election?
ML: The caucus system works this way: Individuals have to show up at one location. There is a limited window of opportunity to cast a ballot. You have to be there at a certain time on a certain night. It’s difficult for people to get there. With a primary, you may have 12 hours to vote. Here you have a 10-minute window. You get people who are more in tune with what is going on politically, a much higher educated voter group.
EOH: Sioux County is in western Iowa?
ML: In the northwest corner of Iowa, a very unique part. Iowa is a 50/50 state, swinging back and forth between Republican and Democrat. In my county in the last general election, 88 percent of the votes were for Republican candidates. It’s a very conservative area.
EOH: How are the voters evaluating each candidate?
ML: As a whole, Iowa is different from my part of the country, much more conservative than the rest of the state. With my constituents, social conservatives will do well. We have eight individuals on the ballot because Herman Cain is still on the ballot. With a potential eight-way split, 18 percent or 19 percent could win the Iowa Caucus. Ron Paul easily could reach that number. The Iowa Caucus is not designed to allow Iowans to help pick the next President. It’s more to thin the herd and weed out lower level candidates.
EOH: If you had to pick at this time, could Ron Paul win the Iowa Caucus?
ML: It’s very possible he could win on a percentage basis. I believe it will be a tight three-person race among Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney and Ron Paul. Rick Santorum could be a surprise.
EOH: Has Ron Paul spent much time in Iowa?
ML: He spent some time, not as much as Santorum and Bachmann. He has been in our county a couple of times. Rick Santorum has done the finest job being on the ground in the state.
EOH: If Ron Paul lands on top, would it shake up the GOP nationally?
ML: I don’t think so. Ron Paul is an interesting candidate. He has things I’m favorable to, a few I’m not. In a seven- or eight-person split, he can show very well. If it gets down to a three- person race, I don’t think he will have much of a chance. He is a shake-up kind of candidate, a theme resonates with a lot of people.
EOH: What are you and your constituents looking for in a candidate?
ML: In my area, several issues come into play; economics, security and conservatism. We have a strong social conservative group; the pro-life issue is important to many of the voters as well as the marriage issue. We have a combination of issues, economic and social.
EOH: Which candidate comes closest to addressing these issues the way they should be addressed?
ML: The candidate who leads the pack in many of those areas would be Rick Santorum. He has a consistent past. Michele Bachmann also would fit well. Some voters are saying we’ll give up some of our ideal candidate issues because it is important to have a person who can win the national election. They may look toward Romney or Gingrich who might play better on a national general election basis.
EOH: If Mitt Romney is the standard bearer, will the party still come together?
ML: The vast majority will support whoever the nominee is. They feel there is such a critical need to have a change right now. Obviously you will lose some people. For the most part, the conservatives will rally around the candidate.
EOH: How is the President looking in Iowa?
ML: Not nearly as favorable as four years ago. We have a trend toward an anti-President feeling. Some of my Democratic friends are discouraged about what has occurred the last two or three years. They felt there has been an overstepping by the administration in many areas. There is a sense of getting back to balance. If that means bringing back a Republican President, the Republicans have a significant advantage. I think the middle of the road voters will be moving toward the Republican side of the fence in Iowa.
EOH: Do you see the GOP coming together in big numbers in 2012 behind whoever the standard bearer is?
ML: They will come together with a solid turnout. I don’t see President Obama getting near the turnout he got last time. If the Republicans gain a little and President Obama loses a support, that is where the election will be won or lost. There will be strong support for the Republican nominee.
EOH: Who would you bet on winning the Iowa Caucus?
ML: It could be Gingrich. But the top four will be so close, it will be a 1 percent to 2 percent difference. On a national level, if I were to bet today, I would predict that Romney would be the nominee.
Dr. Earl Ofari Hutchinson is an author and political analyst. He is a weekly co-host of the Al Sharpton Show on the American Urban Radio Network. He is the author of “How Obama Governed: The Year of Crisis and Challenge.” He is an associate editor of New America Media. He is host of the weekly Hutchinson Report Newsmaker Hour on KTYM Radio Los Angeles streamed on ktym.com podcast on blogtalkradio.com and on thehutchinsonreportnews.com
Follow Earl Ofari Hutchinson on Twitter: http://twitter.com/earlhutchinson
