Here Is Why Arnold Does Not Have to be a Lame Duck

Which means he now faces the possibility of hanging around for two years as the lamest of lame ducks while a host of Democrats and a few Republicans fight over which one of them will inherit the governor's office and all the unsolved problems that go with it.

But Schwarzenegger doesn't have to be a lame duck. Nor does he have to go down in history as what he plainly is now: One of the least effective governors California has ever had, and one whose policy decisions were determined in large part by whoever donated money to his various campaigns.

My Solution

Here's what he can do to keep himself from languishing in the weak position of a governor that everyone knows will soon be gone and therefore doesn't need to be respected or heeded:

He can finally get started on fulfilling some of the promises he made while initially running for office in the historic recall election of ‘03. And he can reverse some of the stupid moves he's made during his more than five years in office, moves that have both created financial troubles for California and reinforced the sense spawned by ex-Gov. Gray Davis that public policy in this state is often determined by the highest bidder.

Stupid move No. 1, of course, was rescinding the increases in the vehicle license tax that had been instituted by Davis early in ‘03 to help balance the state budget after revenues dropped to levels prescribed by the law that had allowed Davis to cut the car tax in the first place.

Drawing Back Curtain on Motivation

Rolling back that tax was Schwarzenegger's loudest ‘03 campaign promise and his first move upon becoming governor. It was almost the only campaign promise he ever kept, and one that might have been prompted by the more than $2 million automobile dealers kicked into his campaign — the first indicator of how he could be influenced by his donors.

Slicing that tax initially cost the state $4 billion a year, but some estimates are that this effect has almost doubled over the last five years. In short, almost half of California's likely 2008-09 budget deficit of approximately $12 billion is caused by one pandering campaign promise.

Another ‘03 campaign promise was to refuse all campaign donations from special interests. This one lasted about one day. That's how long it took Schwarzenegger to begin accepting campaign checks from oil companies, car dealers, telephone companies, automakers, utility firms, land developers and myriad others whose financial fortunes often depend on state policy and regulatory decisions.

Cause and Effect

Is it an accident, for instance, that Schwarzenegger took hundreds of thousands in campaign contributions from Sempra Energy, the San Diego-based parent of the huge Southern California Gas Co., and then killed several legislative efforts to demand public hearings (with cross examination of witnesses) on the question of whether the state needs liquefied natural gas? Was it coincidence that SBC Corp. (now known as AT&T) donated even more to Schwarzenegger just before he decided not to oppose its takeover of AT&T and its adoption of that smaller firm's better-known name?

All Schwarzenegger has to do to regain most of the public confidence he has lost over the last two years is return many of the corporate donations he's received and end his practice of steadily raising money from businesses affected by his policies.

Do both these things and he'd instantly restore his image. As it is, he has a chance to win election in ‘10 to the U.S. Senate over three-term Democrat Barbara Boxer, if he chooses. That's a possibility he's bandied about occasionally in the last year, while refusing to get specific about possibilities for his post-Sacramento life.

Inaction Will Be Fatal

Don't do these things and he'll condemn himself to two more years of lengthy budget deadlocks, with the unpopularity that inevitably results. Don't restore the car tax and keep taking special interest donations and he'll also provide ammunition galore for Boxer or anyone else who ever runs against him if he ever again seeks public office.

The bottom line: Schwarzenegger has a chance to restore his image and his popularity and to regain the clout he once had both in Sacramento and elsewhere. But it will take hard decisions to accomplish that, decisions he has never shown the slightest inclination to make.