[Editor’s Note: On June 18, two weeks after Alex Johnson finished a distant second to George McKenna (45 percent to 25 percent) in a special LAUSD Board election to fill a seat vacated by Marguerite LaMotte’s Dec. 5 death, a Johnson campaign consultant delivered his assessment of the Aug. 12 runoff.]
Voters in the First District of LAUSD are demanding a new direction for their schools. That's exactly why Alex Johnson has an excellent chance to win the runoff for School Board in August.
Polls conducted by the Johnson campaign during the primary and runoff showed that voters in the district are highly dissatisfied with the performance of the district and the School Board. For example, only 25 percent of voters believe that the School Board is doing an excellent or good job, while 56% think the Board is doing a fair or poor job.
Tellingly, only 37 percent of voters think that public schools in their neighborhood are doing an excellent or good job, while 50 percent believe they are doing a fair or poor job.
Usually, a majority of people believe that their own neighborhood’s schools are good – even those in communities with poorly performing schools. The fact that a plurality in this district rate their schools unfavorably speaks volumes about the level of dissatisfaction.
As a result of the primary, Alex Johnson’s name identification is now almost equal to George McKenna’s.
Alex began the race with only 14 percent name ID (and in all likelihood, much of that was attributable to having a common name). Now, 52 percent of voters have an opinion about Alex. While George McKenna also gained in name ID, he started with a 2.5 to 1 advantage. Now the ratio is down to 1.1 to 1.
Favorability
Alex Johnson
April: 12 percent favorable,
2 percent unfavorable.
June: 42 percent favorable,
10 percent unfavorable.
George McKenna
April: 29 percent favorable,
7 percent unfavorable.
June: 49 percent favorable,
8 percent unfavorable.
From the first moment Alex declared his candidacy, we identified two distinct phases and goals in the campaign:
1. Place second in the primary, while holding George McKenna under 50 percent. We knew from the outset that McKenna’s higher initial name ID would virtually guarantee him a first place finish in a multi-candidate race.
2. Win the head‐to‐head against McKenna by offering Alex as an opportunity for a new direction for L.A. schools.
We completely succeeded in the first phase. Now we are turning our attention to the head‐to‐head contest.
Our post‐primary poll conducted in mid‐June shows that while McKenna begins the race with a lead, Johnson is within striking distance. And 33 percent of likely voters are undecided.
When voters in the district learn about both candidates, Alex Johnson emerges with a narrow lead. Voters who are currently undecided move in Johnson’s direction by nearly a 2 to 1 margin. Voters respond strongly to Alex’s profile as a force for change. They are most focused on the areas where he has the strongest credentials, like school safety,
School safety is emerging as a critical issue. In our earlier poll, 25 percent of voters identified safety as their top concern when it comes to L.A. schools – more than any other issue.
Voters are very concerned about how the district handled the child abuse scandal at Miramonte Elementary School and are looking for leaders who will respond quickly and effectively to such problems. They react very favorably to Alex’s track record as a district attorney who prosecuted domestic violence cases, and his work to create “safe passages” that allow kids in dangerous neighborhoods to get to school safely.
Another important issue is making sure that parents have an adequate voice in the direction of their children’s schools.
Voters want a School Board representative who will listen to and collaborate with local parents, instead of ignoring them.
Finally, voters want someone who is committed to a new direction for L.A. schools. They no longer are willing tolerate underperforming schools where large percentages of students drop out.
All of these factors give us good reason to believe that Alex Johnson can and will win the runoff.
We began the primary campaign essentially in a tie for last place in our poll. We ended up with a strong second place finish. Now we start the runoff within striking distance of McKenna, and with a clear path to victory.
