To the uninitiated, they’re known as woodchucks, land beavers or whistlepigs.
Around the fifth century, the European Celts believed that animals had certain supernatural powers.
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According to folklore from Germany and France, when groundhogs came out of their winter dens too early, they were frightened by their shadow, and they retreated back inside for four to six weeks.
Like many folk legends, this one has found its way into a modern superstition.
Georgia’s got a furry prognosticator named General Beau Lee, Ph.D. Toledo, Ohio, has Holland Huckleberry. Even New York has Staten Island Chuck.
But on the first Monday in February, midway between the end of winter and the start of spring, there’s only one real weather forecasting groundhog, Punxsutawny Phil.
Phil First, Mickey Second
For 123 years, thousands have gathered at Gobblers Knob, in Punxsutawny’s tiny town square, to await the predictions of the only American rodent that gets more ink than Mickey.
This year, as his frigid devotees hopefully looked on, Phil turned, and to the disappointment of all, saw his shadow. Another six weeks of winter.
Weather is one of the few disciplines less precise than economics, and equally fraught with odd superstitions. Consequently, it comes as no surprise that Phil’s word on the weather has become gospel.
A lot can happen in six weeks.
Last year, six weeks to the day after Phil saw his shadow, Bear Stearns collapsed, signaling a new phase to the credit crisis and much more pain ahead.
Two Kinds of Winter
Today, as the President’s stimulus package wends it way through Congress, Americans are breathlessly waiting to see if it will bring relief to the winter that has frozen our economy.
With the economy in a deep freeze, every American wants less politics and more action. The President and his Democratic supporters want to deliver.
Because the economic clock is ticking, the temptation is to pass a recovery package, with or without true bi-partisan support, as happened in the House of Representatives.
This is a mistake.
Forget About the Meter Running
In a crisis of this magnitude, the President must rise above partisan politics and not succumb to artificial deadlines. Unlike Punxsutawny Phil and his many imitators, he’s only got one chance to get it right. He needs to get both sides to buy into his plan. Otherwise, we are doomed to more than another six weeks of economic winter.
Getting the U.S. economy back on track is a tricky business. Unlike the pseudo-science of weather prediction, it is not for amateurs.
Just ask New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg.
When he reached down to lift Staten Island Chuck out of his peaceful slumber in New York’s annual ode to the groundhog, he got bitten.
John Cohn is a senior partner in the Globe West Financial Group[ based in West Los Angeles. He may be contacted at www.globewestfinancial.com
