[img]1805|exact|||no_popup[/img]
Kathy Paspalis
[img]1993|exact|||no_popup[/img]
Dr. Steve Levin
[img]2177|exact|||no_popup[/img]
Suzanne Robins
(See statistical analysis here.)
Startled on Election Night when the entire three-person slate by United Parents of Culver City won seats on the School Board, I was curious about the answer to two questions, I posed during the campaign.
Would Sue Robins ultimately turn out to be grateful to the UPCC? Or would the UPCC be grateful to her for accepting their endorsement?
Delving Deeper
I combed through the election results for clues.
All three UPCC candidates – Dr. Steve Levin, incumbent Kathy Paspalis and Ms. Robins – acknowledged their endorsements, but none shouted from rooftops. What effect did the UPCC endorsements have on the election?
The three candidates’ combined-totals represented a remarkable overall average of 60.9 percent of the total vote, 59.1 percent in early voting by mail and 62.5 percent on Election Day.
The Chosen
Looking only at the three endorsees’ combined results, Dr. Levin received 36.7 percent, Ms. Paspalis 33.1 and Ms. Robins 30.2. Even though Ms. Paspalis is an active UPCC member, the only candidate with any real known ties to the organization was Dr. Levin, founding president.
Who Is Indebted to Whom?
Did the UPCC endorsement help elect Ms. Robins? Did the other two candidates help get Ms. Robins, the only registered independent, elected? Did she ride in on their coattails? Did running a pre-selected slate of candidates help lead voters to make up their minds to vote for their complete slate?
The UPCC Effect?
In 2009, running the first time, also a seven-candidate race, Ms. Paspalis appeared on 57.4 percent of ballots and received 25.9 percent of the vote to finish second behind Karlo Silbiger.
Not So Fast
This time around, District-wide, Ms. Paspalis ran the strongest of all seven candidates, finishing no worse than third in any precinct. As an incumbent running with the UPCC endorsement, she appeared on fewer ballots, 51.2 percent, and received a smaller percentage of the vote, 20.2, than four years ago. It appears the UPCC endorsement did not help her much this time. At best, it may be seen as a mixed blessing.
Everybody Likes a Winner
Will Dr. Levin’s surprising first-place finish bring out parents seeking to join the UPCC? Will the UPCC leadership try to capitalize on increasing its ranks of 180 members after its stunning electoral coup?
Ultimately, there is no definitive correlation between the candidates receiving a UPCC endorsement and how well each did as an individual candidate.
I Digressed
Back to my original question about who would be grateful, Ms. Robins or the UPCC? In analyzing the results, there was no detectable endorsement-effect in the election. Voters thought Ms. Robins was one of the best candidates running. They elected her on her own merit.
Much Ado About…
If one does not think campaign endorsements matter, this will seem like a big waste.
Mr. Laase may be contacted at GMLaase@aol.com
