[Editor’s Note: An inside look at two polls affecting mayoralty candidates in the March 5 primary were released yesterday, and the two most affected contenders sent dueling messages. Background: A week ago, Kevin James exposed alleged ethical violations by City Controller Wendy Greuel, and they have been trading unrestrained observations ever since. Readers may judge which contrasting message is more encouraging for their candidate.]
Under the headline “James Moves up While Wendy Greuel Slips in New ABC Poll,” the Kevin James camp sent the first dispatch:
Last evening ABC7, in collaboration with SurveyUSA, announced the results of their poll regarding the Los Angeles mayoral race. The poll was conducted this past Saturday and was completed Tuesday. According to the results of the poll, mayoral candidate and former federal prosecutor Kevin James is gaining strong momentum against his opposition. In fact, he is the only candidate who is gaining in the polls.
“I am thrilled with the results,” said Mr. James, former Chairman of AIDS Project Los Angeles Kevin James. “These are a clear indicator my outsider message of fighting for the working class, demanding accountability, and rooting out corruption at City Hall are resonating with voters.”
According to the poll, Mr. James is six percentage points behind City Controller Wendy Greuel. With an estimated 4.3 percent margin of error, Mr. James is in a statistical tie with Ms. Greuel.
“The poll shows Kevin within single digits of making the run-off,”said strategist John Weaver. “As more voters begin to pay attention to the race, Angelenos are recognizing insiders have run City Hall into the ground, and James is the only viable alternative.”
Campaign manager Jeff Corless said: “This is a bad sign for Wendy Greuel. The fact her cronies have stepped up attacks on Kevin indicate her internal polls are making her very nervous.”
A Very Different Perspective
For a quite different perspective, here is a same-day report from Rose Kapolczynski of the Wendy Greuel camp:
Our most recent poll of voters shows that Wendy leads her nearest competitor, Eric Garcetti, by two points, 20 percent to 18 percent. Although many voters are still making up their minds, 58 percent of undecided voters are women, who have a more favorable view of Wendy.
Our poll was conducted by respected national pollster Celinda Lake, who has helped elect thousands of Democrats across the country in her decades in the polling business. Celinda is an expert in assessing how voters assess women candidates, having helped elect women governors, senators and mayors. Her past clients include House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi, Vice President Joe Biden, the Democratic National Committee, EMILY's List, the AFL-CIO and the Sierra Club.
Our hard work is paying off. According to Celinda’s analysis, among voters who know both Mr. Garcetti and Ms. Greuel, Wendy has a double-digit lead. As she notes, this means that as long as Wendy has the resources – money and volunteers – to communicate with voters, she’s in a strong position to win.
P.S. – You may hear about another poll that was also released yesterday. That poll, conducted as an automated “robo-poll,” included respondents not likely to vote in the upcoming election. We’re confident in our poll, and the long record of accuracy by Celinda Lake and her firm.
