The Guss Report –At the risk of momentarily being labeled as a jingoist, the world’s stability is largely based on that of the United States. Election Day finally has arrived. Buckle-up amigas y amigos. Your investment portfolio may be in for a wild ride until the world’s financial markets calibrate life with a new President, Senate, House of Representatives and the geopolitical mish-mosh that is about to ensue.
It isn’t that Wall Street favors Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump. It’s that its kryptonite is uncertainty, and the price of virtually everything in the financial markets likely will swing wildly before settling like dust back into predictability.
How your money winds up depends largely on which of these categories best describes your tolerance for financial turbulence.
The Get-Out-Now Approach
If you are risk-averse and want to have the same money when the markets open at 6:30 a.m. PST on Wednesday, that you have today when the markets close at 1 p.m. PST, liquidate your holdings immediately. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has been in a 9-day swoon since presumed winner Hillary Clinton got sucker-punched by FBI Director James Comey’s public comments about her private server, and that the Clinton Foundation’s activities have been on its radar for more than a year. The only problem is that if you sell now, you may create tax return chaos of your own if you jump back into the same equities with a “wash sale,” or rebuying what you sold too soon after you sold it.
The Hold-and-Hang-on Approach
If you made wise decisions – or had wise advice – when you originally invested in what you currently hold, ultimately, they will be wise decisions when election results have settled down and life returns to normal. Wal-Mart will remain the world’s largest retailer, Apple will still have the most sought-after phone and Merck’s Keytruda will continue to break ground on cancer immunology. Take some Dramamine for the turbulence and know that in the end you will be fine.
The Timing-the-Market Approach
If you enjoy or misguidedly see an advantage to investing your hard-earned money in the immediate aftermath of an unpredictable election, you’re in for a world of hurt because while one can get lucky on any given investment, it’s unnecessarily risky. This is the investment equivalent of Evel Knievel trying to rocket himself across the Snake River Canyon in 1974. That didn’t turn out too well.
In Hillary Clinton, the markets see someone who knows how to make the machine work. But it does not know whether she will have an opposing Republican Congress or an FBI that may, may not yet, or may not at all recommend charges or the good health she claims to have but that people don’t necessarily believe she possesses. She walks and talks like a duck that inherently seems dishonest.
In Donald Trump, the markets see a guy who understands every ruse and inefficiency of the free market because he took advantage of so many of them throughout his life. He calls them as he sees them, but the market wonders if he sees things clearly or reasonably. At times, some wonder if he really wants the job at all.
Consider, also, the chaos that is completely out of our hands. There is chatter about Election Day terror attacks in New York, Texas and Virginia. Or of another Dyn Cyber-attack, like the one we experienced a few weeks ago that some believe was a precursor to what we might see today. Or a repeat of the 2000 presidential election when George W. Bush won the Electoral College vote and Al Gore won the popular vote and bug-eyed election workers in Florida found themselves looking for something called hanging chads on paper ballots.
None of this is good or healthy for the financial markets. So save your money because stability is the lifeblood of Wall Street and right now — for the time being — Wall Street’s pavement is cracking under the pressure.
Mr. Guss, MBA, is a contributor to CityWatchLA.com, KFI AM-640 and Huffington Post. He blogs on humane issues at http://ericgarcetti.blogspot.com/. Follow him on Twitter @TheGussReport.
