(See pdf here.)
A recent survey conducted by Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates shows former Assembly member Mike Feuer, wide winner of the March 5 primary, in a dominant position to win the race for Los Angeles City Attorney over incumbent Carmen Trutanich on May 21.
As Figure 1 shows, Mr. Feuer holds a 16-point lead over opponent.
[img]1799|exact|||no_popup[/img]
This margin exceeds the 14-point victory Mr. Feuer achieved in the primary, 44 percent to 30 percent. demonstrates that the incumbent continues to struggle to make up ground against Feuer.
Mr. Feuer’s lead is widespread across demographic groups and geographic areas of the city. A Democrat, his lead is longest among Democrats, who are expected to make up more than 60 percent of the runoff electorate.
[img]1610|left|Mr. Feuer||no_popup[/img]Mr. Feuer leads by 30 points among all Democrats, including Democratic men and women, younger (ages 18-49) and older (50-plus) Democrats, white and non-white Democrats, and those within and outside of the San Fernando Valley.
He also holds a 29-point lead among voters in union households, a 28-point lead among Jewish voters, and leads by broad margins across every geographic area of the city, with the exception of the San Pedro area, home base for Mr. Trutanich.
Key Survey Findings:
Results show Mr. Trutanich is failing to attract support from voters who backed the other two candidates in the primary, support that is vital for him to be competitive in the general election.
- Mr. Feuer has a 31-point lead among voters who supported Greg Smith in the primary, and a 12-point lead among voters who supported Noel Weiss.
- Mr. Feuer is much better liked by voters than Mr. Trutanich. The percentage of voters who have a favorable impression of Mr. Feuer has more than doubled since December.
- Mr. Feuer now enjoys a favorability ratio of better than 3-1. Voters are twice as likely to say they have an unfavorable opinion of Mr. Trutanich than of Mr. Feuer. More than 6 in 10 voters either have an unfavorable impression of Mr. Trutanich or are unfamiliar with him altogether, a dangerous position for any incumbent.
Mr. Feuer only needs to win just slightly more than 1 in 4 of the remaining undecided voters in order to win the race. - With Mr. Feuer sitting at 44 percent support and 28 percent of the electorate still undecided, Mr. Trutanich would need to win nearly 75 percent of the remaining undecided voters—who are mostly comprised of demographic groups heavily in favor of Feuer—to win the race, a tall order for any politician.
[1] Survey Methodology: From March 17-19, a telephone-based survey was conducted of 600 randomly selected registered voters who are likely to cast a ballot in the general election. Respondents were reached via landline and cell phones. Interviewing was conducted in English and Spanish. The margin of error for the sample is plus-minus 4.0 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level. The margin of error for subgroups within the sample will be higher. Due to rounding, not all percentages reach 100 percent.
Mr. Jacobson, who works for the Feuer campaign, may be contacted at dave.r.jacobson@gmail.com
